The challenge

THE CHALLENGE

Residential emissions are a clear threat to the UK's Net Zero ambitions

UK annual territorial greenhouse gas emissions by source sector, 2023

Source: GOV.UK, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics

Residential buildings currently account for about 18% of UK CO₂emissions, by the Government's measure: about ~52 MtCO₂e/year. But this only includes operational emissions via the burning of fossil fuels. Add in indirect emissions from electricity usage, plus the embodied carbon from construction, and the total is higher still.

So if the UK is to have any hope of meeting its (increasingly contentious) target of Net Zero by 2050, residential emissions will need to fall substantially in the next two decades.

THE CHALLENGE

To achieve Net Zero, operating emissions from UK homes will need to be 99% lower by 2050

Residential emissions in the Balanced Pathway (MtCO2e)

Source: UK Climate Change Committee, 7th Carbon Budget (2025)

According to the latest ‘Balanced Pathway’ to Net Zero, published as part of the UK Climate Change Committee's 7th Carbon Budget, these residential combustion emissions will have to disappear almost to zero by 2050 - a reduction of more than 99% from 2023 levels.

The CCC suggests this will be primarily driven by low-carbon heating (especially heat pumps), energy efficiency (especially insulation) and the building of new, more efficient houses.

THE CHALLENGE

The UK has a lot of old houses which are not very energy-efficient…

Age of housing units and EPC rating in England in 2024

Source: Office for National Statistics: Energy efficiency of housing in England and Wales

England (and the UK more broadly) has some of the oldest housing stock in Europe: nearly 80% of existing stock is 35+ years old.

This matters, because older houses are typically much less efficient. In fact, controlling for other factors, the age of a dwelling has the biggest impact on its energy efficiency.

This helps to explain why more than half of all existing dwellings in England have an Environmental Impact Rating (the element of the Energy Performance Certificate that reflects estimated CO₂ emissions) of D or below.

THE CHALLENGE

…while building new homes will exacerbate the problem, particularly for embodied carbon

UK domestic built environment emissions, 2018-2050

Source: UK Green Building Council (2021): Whole Life Carbon Roadmap

We need to build new homes to tackle the housing crisis - but that comes with a substantial carbon cost.

The embodied carbon emissions associated with a new-build home is thought to be in the region of 50-80 tonnes CO₂e. That's c. 20 years' worth of operational emissions for a typical house.

Scientists have suggested that based on current trends, if we do succeed in building 300,000 new homes a year, housing-related emissions will swallow up the UK’s entire carbon budget by 2050.